Kobani's Fall Will Be A Failure For US Coalition

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 07 Oktober 2014 | 22.55

What appears to be the imminent fall of the Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani would not just be a disaster for the Kurds.

It risks strategic failure for the American-led coalition fighting Islamic State before its campaign has begun in earnest.

Also known by its Arabic name, Ain al Arab, the city sits on Turkey's border. Its civilian population has fled - 160,000 across the frontier.

Some 2,000 Kurdish fighters with the YPG, the armed wing of the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), are battling street to street while Islamic State hammers at them with tanks and heavy artillery.

A month-long campaign to sack the city by Islamic State has been largely unaffected by US-led airstrikes - this frontline has been mostly ignored.

The coalition has focused its efforts around Raqqa, the IS 'capital', and on hitting artisanal oil refineries which generate an estimated $2m (£1.2m) a day in revenues. Fair enough.

But to have focused on these areas to the south of where the Kurds have been fighting an existential battle is baffling.

Video: IS Footage Shows Kobani Onslaught

Rebel groups in Syria are already angry at the airstrikes which have not attacked the Damascus regime which has continued to rain barrel bombs onto civilians.

The al Qaeda-linked al Nusra Front and other Islamist groups have been singled out for attacks by the US and others alongside Islamic State - even though all of these groups have previously been locked in combat with the extremist militants.

Syria's Kurds, alongside their brethren in Iraq, offer the best operational hope for the ground troops that the coalition so badly need to prosecute its war against Islamic State.

But they have been left largely unsupported in and around Kobani.

If the city falls, as it's expected to by none other than Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then, inevitably, the Kurds will feel betrayed and join the growing ranks of Syrian rebels who see the airstrikes as doing little but reinforcing the military strength of the Assad regime.

Video: New Strikes Target IS At Border

Mr Erdogan went on to say that there had to be co-ordination with ground troops and that there was no prospect of a victory over Islamic State if those troops could not be mustered.

An odd statement, really, when one notes that Turkey is directly threatened by Islamic State and has the second largest standing army in NATO with more than enough firepower not only to defend Kobani but to knock the militants back severely.

On top of that, Turkey is currently ruled by an Islamic political party and therefore has more street credibility with Syria's rebels than any Western power.

Of course, Ankara is fearful that in helping the PKK it might reinforce its power and reignite the Kurd fight for autonomy inside Turkey.

It would be ludicrous to expect Turkey to go it alone anywhere in Syria where it has been tightly focused on ridding the region of Bashar al Assad and his Damascus regime.

1/20

  1. Gallery: IS Attacks Town Near Turkish Border

    Turkish army tanks take up position on the Turkish-Syrian border near the southeastern town of Suruc in Sanliurfa Province

  2. Kurdish fighters vowed not to abandon their increasingly desperate efforts to defend the Syrian border town of Kobani from Islamic State militants pressing in from three sides and pounding them with heavy artillery

  3. Despite the heavy fighting, which has seen mortars rain down on residential areas in Kobani and stray fire hit Turkish territory, a Reuters reporter saw around 30 people cross over from Turkey, apparently to help with defence of the town

  4. An IS fighter walks near a black flag belonging to the Islamic State near Kobani

  5. Kurdish refugees from Kobani sit in front of their tents in a camp in the southeastern town of Suruc

  6. Islamic State is trying to seize Kobani, which is predominantly Kurdish, and has ramped up its offensive in recent days despite being targeted by US-led coalition airstrikes aimed at halting its progress

  7. Turkish Kurds look at Kobani as they stand on top of a house near Mursitpinar border crossing. Continue through for more pictures

But therein lies an opportunity for the coalition.

Three years ago Turkey called for a no-fly zone in Syria to prevent Assad's regime from bombing its civilians and rebels.

It would make sense for the international coalition to heed this call.

Russia, still Damascus' ally, would object but probably less noisily now that Islamic State is the target of actual airstrikes.

Imposing a no-fly zone would allow Syria's moderate rebels to take on Assad, and Islamic State, and perhaps do away with the growing sense that the American coalition has a pro-Damascus agenda.


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